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I think this is going to be a pretty good offense next year. Early forecasts:

Guptill: 18-22
Copp: 10-14
DeBlois: 8-10
Di Giuseppe: 12-15
Nieves: 15-18
Allen: 18-22
Motte: 10-12
Compher: 10-15
Moffat: 8-12
Kile: 8-12
Selman: 4-6
Hyman: 4-6
Shuart: 2-4
Lynch: 2-4
Sinelli: 2-4

I think Di Giuseppe, Nieves, and Evan Allen have the greatest opportunity to really take off. PDG has disappointed offensively as a scorer but he won't have to carry that burden around anymore because expectations are lower now. Nieves is just a ridiculous talent. I think he started figuring out in the second half how to use his speed to be a really dangerous threat. Every time I talk to the coaches, they can's stop gushing about Allen. I think he has the potential to be Tambellini-like as a freshman and score 20+ goals. 

I think both Copp and DeBlois take a step back from where they were offensively a year ago but not in terms of impact. Guptill will do the most damage there but I'm not convinced he's a 25-goal guy because most of his goals are ugly in nature. That can be a good thing but he doesn't score a lot of goal-scorers goals. 

Thoughts? 
6/7 12:09 PM | IP: Logged

I think your estimates for all the freshmen are too high except for Compher.  Allen because he won't be playing with players who will help him get to 18-22 goals.  To use your comparison to Tambellini, he scored 25 goals playing on a line with Shouneyia and Ortmeyer, and Guptill and Copp aren't them.  Motte, Kile and Shuart because they collectively won't get enough playing time to reach these totals - they will likely compete for 1 spot or for 2 spots with the likes of Selman and Sinelli.  I could see Motte or Kile putting up the numbers you have for them if either of them plays most of the games at LW on the 3rd line, but that would corresponding reduce the totals of other players.

Compher I agree with 10 or more because (in addition to being skilled offensively) he is likely to be in the lineup every game.
6/7 3:16 PM | IP: Logged

Until I see Michigan become consistent offensively, I will temper my goal scoring production.  Compher and Nieves need to lead the charge, otherwise, we are likely to see some scoring slumps.   Inconsistency has plagued this team over four of the past five seasons.

Expect Michigan to challenge Minnesota for 2nd place, behind Wisconsin in first.
6/10 3:13 PM | IP: Logged

I think that is pretty decent balance there, which is needed for a championship team. If we can get that with two guys scoring 20+ it could be a huge season for us next year. Just hope the goaltending is solid.
6/10 3:31 PM | IP: Logged


Originally posted by Capt28:

I think your estimates for all the freshmen are too high except for Compher.  Allen because he won't be playing with players who will help him get to 18-22 goals.  To use your comparison to Tambellini, he scored 25 goals playing on a line with Shouneyia and Ortmeyer, and Guptill and Copp aren't them.  Motte, Kile and Shuart because they collectively won't get enough playing time to reach these totals - they will likely compete for 1 spot or for 2 spots with the likes of Selman and Sinelli.  I could see Motte or Kile putting up the numbers you have for them if either of them plays most of the games at LW on the 3rd line, but that would corresponding reduce the totals of other players.

Compher I agree with 10 or more because (in addition to being skilled offensively) he is likely to be in the lineup every game.

Allen won't be playing with Copp and Guptill. That's DeBlois' line. He will either skate with PDG and Nieves, who combined for 40 assists last season I believe (off the top of my head), or he will skate with Compher and Motte. If he skates with the veterans I actually really like his chances for that kind of production. 
6/11 9:02 AM | IP: Logged
Allen has a knack for finding an open spot in the offensive zone from which he can unleash a shot.

That goal prediction is pretty optimistic. Having played with Compher and Motte previously will make his transition easier. I suspect he will have one or both on his line to start the season.
6/11 9:07 AM | IP: Logged

Yeah, I realized that after I posted, based on your article in the print Wolverine (at least those are the lines that are likely to start the season).  I also agree that PDG and Nieves (who did, in fact, combine for 40 assists last season) are probably better playmakers than Guptil and Copp, although they aren't Shouneyia and Ortmeyer either.  Nonetheless, I still think 18-22 g is too optimistic.

Another factor is that we will be playing about 10% fewer games next season, pre-NCAAs (34 + probably 2 = 36 vs. 36 + typically 4 = 40 "historically").  So someone you thought would score 20 in past seasons, you would figure 18 for this season.  And this is non-quanitfiable, but arguably "on average" we are playing better teams every night this coming season.

BTW this reminds me that PDG had a better year last year than I think we have generally given him credit for.  There has been some disappointment in his goal production since he scored, what, 6 or 7 goals in the first 10-12 games of his freshman year, but 19 assists and 28 points last year was pretty good production.
6/11 9:54 AM | IP: Logged

Mike:  You think highly of Evan Allen.  Any thoughts on him not being invited to the US World Junior Summer Evaluation Camp with him an NTDP graduate?
6/13 12:17 AM | IP: Logged
I agree that Copp and DeBlois will take a step back simply because they will conceded a lot of the offensive production to PDG/Nieves/insert winger here, and the Motte/Compher/Allen line which will get more minutes as the season goes along. Red typically likes to mix and match the lines with freshmen playing with veterans, so Allen will likely play with PDG and Boo, as long as Red can trust his defensive skills on a top line as well.  If Allen doesn't play with the two of them, then which winger? Maybe Moffatt by virtue of being an older player?  I look at both PDG and Nieves as purer passers, but Boo has shown the ability to turn on the jets and get to the net.  You'd need a goal scorer to complement that line, and Allen might be the guy.

I think, in order for me to be satisfied with Guptill, he has GOT to show more consistency offensively and work a little harder.  None of this going-stretches-at-a-time stuff. He's a big enough guy and shooter where he should be able to get to space and get to pucks.  

How many GPG do you guys think we will average in the Big Ten with some of the defensive corps?  3 and change a game would be prolific if we can keep it up all season  .

Anytime someone compares a freshman to Tambellini, I can only hope that it will be true.
6/13 1:48 PM | IP: Logged
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